Thanks Ian for the useful observations. I expect the comments going to the comparison between different models will be useful for 7DII users
I spent some time tracking gulls on Lake Burley Griffin several days ago, with similarly mixed results, using the 9 point autofocus system and the highest continuous shutter repeat. Some sequences were quite successful in tracking the bird and maintaining good focus, others not so even when the position of the bird in the frame is under one or more of the 9 points. Interestingly I had better luck with birds flying towards the camera than with those panning horizontally. However, I am unable to draw useful conclusions because I have no way of knowing how much this was due to the camera and how much to me, noting that I am not particularly practised at BIF and its a skill that needs to be cultivated. I want to get down to try again with some different camera settings but with a string of 40 degree C days predicted ahead, plus the looming childcare duties of the school hols I am not sure when the opportunity will arise.
In a sense, this is academic; its interesting checking out the limitations of the camera in this particular type of photography but my frame of reference for what is 'good' in this regard is limited, and besides the camera is a keeper overall.
On the autofocus subject Roger Cicala's series of articles on Lensrentals.com comparing (fairly informally) the performance of phase detection AF systems with contrast detection AF on a range of cameras and lenses, is interesting reading. While these articles are now fairly old, he uses resolution graphs to show the differences between the contrast detection and phase detection with particular Canon lenses and bodies. Using contrast detection (live view), and also using manual focus with magnified rear screen images, he was able to achieve good consistency of focus over several shots. There are still differences in resolution from shot to shot but these are comparatively small. In contrast, phase detection showed rather more substantial variation between shots, and while most shots were still within acceptable limits of focus there were still a reasonable proportion where the focus would be deemed unacceptable. Autofocus microadjustment was able to correct lenses which were obviously so off that no shots were acceptable, but did not correct the shot to shot variance. Moreover there was substantial variation between different bodies and lens combinations, generally with improvements with newer technology.
With wider reading, it seems that there are potentially a range of reasons for the variation of phase detection from shot to shot, some of which I don't really understand. Clearly the physical calibration of the system has to be very exact, and can vary with (for example) temperature. In addition, I understand that an adjustment needs to be made to take account of the differences in how light focuses on the main sensor compared to the narrow-apertured microlenses on the autofocus sensor, leading to an estimated 'best focus correction value' which is hard coded into firmware in the lens and must be applied by the camera's computer. Things like aperture and available light also affect the accuracy of phase detection. Canon (and I presume other manufacturers) also use predictive algorithms to have the camera anticipate movement of the subject during high speed shooting, which are likely to be 'deceived' by some situations, a situation which Canon recognises by having different settings for prediction based on different types of subject movement. Canon highlights in its web articles the fact that a subject moving at speed will move substantially (sometimes metres) in the short time between pressing the shutter button and the shutter activating (shutter lag) as well as between shots, and also the camera cannot correct focus when the mirror is up. So when you think about how much time the camera has to focus in between the mirror flipping up and down up 10 times a second, and the complexity of the decisions to be made to predict subject movement, I'm not surprised the camera sometimes misses focus during high speed shooting.
Returning to the 90D, I continue to be impressed overall by the camera. Now that DxO Photolab has been updated for the 90D, I am able to use my preferred processing settings in that software with very pleasing results, although I haven't done any really high ISO work. A solid upgrade on the 80D, and a good all round performer which balances well with the 100-400 II lens.
Simon